Nasdaq 100: Tech Stocks Drive US Stocks Higher as Oil Retreats Today

Oil Drops. Stocks Hold Record Highs Into Month End.

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures ticked higher Friday morning and hit a fresh record high earlier in the session. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.1%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 81 points.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell more than 2% below $87 a barrel. Spot Brent crude oil dropped roughly 2% near $92. The last trading day of May and oil is pulling back on reports that President Donald Trump is considering extending the 60-day ceasefire framework with Iran. That is the combination that keeps this market at all-time highs.

Is the Ceasefire Doing More for Stocks Than Earnings?

The ceasefire framework between the United States and Iran is not signed yet. Iran launched missiles late Thursday. President Donald Trump is still weighing whether to extend the agreement. The White House and Tehran are not on the same page about what was agreed to. None of that has changed. What changed is that oil is falling anyway. Traders are pricing in diplomacy winning over escalation and West Texas Intermediate crude oil below $87 a barrel takes immediate inflation pressure off the table.

That matters more than any single earnings report this week. Kate Moore, chief investment officer at Citi Wealth, said investors have largely expected some type of resolution between the United States and Iran. The question was always timing and scope, not whether it would happen. Strong earnings growth has been the primary driver behind the recovery since the lows earlier this year but the ceasefire progress is what removed the ceiling.

The Nasdaq Composite Index is leading the week with a gain of more than 2%. The S&P 500 climbed over 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is higher but under 1% for the week. For the full month of May the S&P 500 is on track for a gain of nearly 5%. The Dow is looking at roughly 2%. The Nasdaq is the standout at around 8% for the month. Those are not numbers that happen when the market is worried about what comes next.

Which Earnings Reports Moved the Most Money?

Dell Technologies surged 38% in extended trading. Raised full-year guidance. Beat on earnings and revenue. The guidance raise is the signal. Companies do not raise unless they can see the orders.

Innovent Biologics gained 10% on a Pfizer partnership for cancer treatments worth up to $10.5 billion in upfront and milestone payments.

LG Electronics jumped nearly 24% in Asia on automotive solutions built with Google technology. Samsung Electronics rose more than 6% after shipping next-generation AI memory chips. Both riding the same AI infrastructure demand that has been carrying U.S. technology stocks all year.

Are Bond Yields Finally Cooperating?

The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield held near 4.45% Friday. The 2-Year U.S. Treasury yield sat around 4.03%. Yields fell during Thursday’s session and held those levels into Friday. Lower oil prices are doing the work. When energy costs drop, transportation and production costs drop with them. That takes pressure off the inflation picture without the Federal Reserve having to do anything.

The April Personal Consumption Expenditures index showed prices rising 3.8% year-over-year. That is still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. But the monthly number came in softer than expected on Thursday and the bond market responded. Yields pulled back. The U.S. Dollar Index eased. Growth stocks caught a bid. If oil stays down and inflation data continues cooling even slightly, the rate conversation shifts from hikes to holds. That is the best outcome stocks can realistically get right now.

Daily June E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures Technical Analysis

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher on Friday after hitting a record high earlier in the session.

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 7595.25 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 7354.25 changes the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. Taking out 7505.75 will change the minor trend to down, shifting momentum to the downside.

The main range is 7354.25 to 7595.25. Its trailing retracement zone support is at 7474.75 to 7446.25. Since the main trend is up, value buyers are likely to come in on a test of this area.

There is no resistance so trying to pick a top will just be a guess. However, if the index stops going up and closes lower today, a closing price reversal top will form. If this chart pattern is confirmed then we could be looking at a 2 to 3 day correction with 7474.75 to 7446.25 the next target zone.

Does the May Rally Have Room to Run Into June?

Oil pulling back, the ceasefire framework holding together, and Thursday’s softer Personal Consumption Expenditures print are all pointing the same direction heading into June. The combination keeps the Federal Reserve from getting more aggressive. It keeps the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield from breaking higher. It keeps growth stocks in the lead.

The risk is the same risk it has been all month. One headline from Tehran. One more military strike. Oil spikes back above $90 and the inflation relief disappears. The retracement zone at 7474.75 to 7446.25 on June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures is the first support if the ceasefire falls apart. A close below today’s high without follow-through Monday would form a closing price reversal top and set up a 2 to 3 day correction into that zone. But with the Nasdaq up 8% in May and earnings still delivering, sellers need a catalyst. Right now they do not have one.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.