The US indices look as if the market is trying to find a short-term bottom after the poor reaction to the Fed press conference on Wednesday.
The Nasdaq 100 has been choppy and essentially noisy and directionless during the early hours on Thursday, as we are hanging out just above the 200-day EMA, trying to figure out where to go next.
Ultimately, this is a market that I think is whining a little bit from the press conference during the late part of the Wednesday session, as Jerome Powell just didn’t give them the ultra-dovish attitude they like out there. But at the end of the day, I do think we are sitting at a significant amount of support, and it would not surprise me at all to see the market turn right back around. We have seen this pattern multiple times, where the market freaks out in 1 direction or the other at the press conference and then turns around and goes in the other direction the next day.
The Dow Jones 30 looks pretty beaten up. It is below the 200-day EMA, so I think this is an index you need to watch because if it cannot pick up any momentum from here, it could be ugly.
There is a significant amount of support near the 45,500 level, though. I would also point out that there is resistance at 47,000, and if we were to break above that, then the market really could start to take off. But we will see how that plays out. I think you have to accept the fact that the market still needs to prove itself if you are bullish.
The S&P 500 currently sits at the 200-day EMA, suggesting that it could turn around and go to the upside. But in the short term I think again you need to see momentum come back into the picture to make it a scenario where you want to risk money. Let the other traders out there try to pick this up first and once momentum comes back in you could see a move to 6,725. Anything above opens up the possibility of 6,800.
Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.