Markets are clawing back Monday’s losses — barely. The S&P and Dow are each up 0.20%, while the Nasdaq’s leading with a 0.56% gain. Tech’s pulling weight, but it’s not a clean move. All three indexes dipped earlier before buyers stepped in. That kind of chop tells you conviction is thin.
Monday snapped five-day win streaks across the board, and the hesitation is understandable. Inflation’s sticky, valuations are stretched, and the AI spending boom still hasn’t proven it can turn hype into earnings. Bulls are hoping December lives up to its reputation — historically the third-best month for the S&P — but the market’s not giving it away.
One thing working in their favor: rate cut odds. Traders are now pricing an 87% chance the Fed cuts in December, up sharply from mid-November. That’s a tailwind, assuming the data cooperates.
Bitcoin’s back above $90,000 after Monday’s brief dip under $85,000, and that’s giving crypto-linked stocks a boost. Strategy’s up 4%.
The AI trade is holding up too. Nvidia’s adding about 1%, but the real story is Credo Technology — up 14% to an all-time high after crushing earnings. The company reported 67 cents adjusted EPS against a 49-cent estimate, and revenue guidance for the current quarter ($335M–$345M) blew past the $248M consensus. That’s the kind of beat that keeps the AI narrative alive.
MongoDB’s another standout, up 23% after topping estimates and raising full-year guidance. Buyers are still chasing execution.
Technology’s up 0.73% — the clear winner. Industrials are adding 0.64%, helped by Boeing’s 8% surge after landing a Navy contract and issuing bullish 2026 cash flow guidance.
Energy’s getting hit, down 1.27% as crude weakens. Materials are off 1.31%, and Consumer Staples are down 1.02%. Procter & Gamble just hit a new 52-week low — one of only two S&P names to do so today. The other is Linde.
Meanwhile, nine stocks are at new highs, including Apple, which touched all-time highs.
The bounce feels fragile. Buyers showed up, but they’re not pressing. The S&P’s back above its 50-day moving average, breadth is improving, and sentiment’s subdued — all constructive. But until inflation data cooperates or earnings justify these multiples, rallies are likely to stay choppy.
December’s got history on its side. Whether bulls can capitalize depends on what the Fed signals — and whether the market’s willing to believe it.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.