NASDAQ Index, Dow Jones 30 and S&P 500 Forecasts – US Indices Continue to Look to Buyers

NASDAQ 100 Technical Analysis

https://www.fxempire.com/indices/tech100-usd

The NASDAQ 100 dropped a little bit lower in early market trading on Friday as we are testing the 200-day EMA. This is a major technical crossroads that we find ourselves in as the 200-day EMA is of course an indicator that a lot of people watch closely, and we’ve seen a lot of support here at 24,250 or so.

That being said, there are a lot of concerns right now, not at the least of which would be the fact that the hawkish Fed has somewhat squashed risk appetite with the dot plot being more hawkish than expected. Concerns arising that the persistent inflation which is near 3% may limit the Fed to only 1 cut in 2026.

Geopolitical risk and energy, of course, continue to be an issue, as oil prices are surging. That does tend to create a little bit of a stagnation type of scenario that people will be watching. That being said, we are in an area where I would anticipate a little bit of support, so a bounce isn’t completely out of the question, but if we break down below the 23,800 level, I’d be very concerned.

Dow Jones 30 Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones 30 is likely to see the markets test the 45,750 level for support. It’s an area that previously has been important as well. That being said, we are fighting to hold the floor here. If we give up the floor, this could get ugly pretty quick.

The support at 46,430 that had been in the market is now your immediate ceiling. If we can break that, then it’s likely to turn the market around and really start to jump in. That being said, there are more of a wait-and-see type of attitude out there at the moment and I think that will be the story going forward as well. With this, I remain neutral to slightly bearish.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 is currently hanging around the 200-day EMA, but it has a significant floor underneath near the 6,500 level that I’d be watching. The breach of the 200-day EMA is probably the most critical development from a technical analysis standpoint, which historically, when the S&P 500 snaps a long streak above the 200-day EMA and breaking through it to the downside, the market could experience a multi-week period of volatility, though 70% of the time it recovers to higher levels within the year.

Ultimately, I think this is still very much like the other indices, where we just have so much going on around the world from a geopolitical risk standpoint that it’s difficult to get overly bullish. That being said, it doesn’t necessarily suggest that we’re going to fall apart. Again, I believe that the 6,500 level is, of course, an area that traders will have to be very cognizant of.

A bounce is probably held in check at 6,700 and then again at 6,800. Currently, the VIX is sitting right around 24, which is plotting out a potential daily swing of 1.5% being the new normal. I remain optimistic but I also do not feel the need to be the first trader to start buying.