A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was all traders needed Thursday. Geopolitical fear came out of the market and the Nasdaq Composite ran to an intraday record at 24156.18. When that kind of risk gets removed, growth stocks are the first to move and that’s exactly what happened.
Software names drove the Nasdaq higher. Tech buying was steady and focused on companies with strong growth potential. Energy stocks joined the move. That breadth matters. A rally that spreads beyond technology is harder to knock down.
PepsiCo beat expectations and moved higher. Abbott Laboratories lowered its full-year profit outlook and dropped. Charles Schwab and Travelers both declined after results failed to impress. Netflix edged up ahead of its after-close report. That was the number the market was waiting on.
Myseum more than doubled after rebranding around artificial intelligence. Voyager Technologies gained on a NASA contract win. Speculative money is still moving on themes.
The Nasdaq at a record is a sentiment-driven move right now. Economic data hasn’t backed it up. As earnings season rolls on individual results will start to matter more than the overall mood. The ceasefire is the wildcard. It got the market here. Any deterioration in that situation and the gains get tested fast.
Technically, the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) is attempting to climb above the previous record high at 24019.99, but the intraday surge appears to have stalled at 24156.18. It’s not a major concern right now unless it leads to a reversal top. In that case, we’d start watching for a 2 to 3 day correction, but not a change in the trend.
If we don’t get a clean reversal top then we’ll watch for another sign of weakness that is likely to be a close under the former record top at 24019.99.
We’re not trying to pick a top, but the rally is pretty steep, about 65 degrees, that makes it vulnerable to a near-term giveback. Furthermore, the index is pulling away from the 50-day moving average at 22519.88 and the 200-day moving average at 22481.79. That means it’s getting close to being a little hot, which typically signals profit-taking is just around the corner.
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James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.