NASDAQ Reaction to 15567.50 – 15284.00 Sets Near-Term Tone

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are inching higher during the pre-market session in a choppy trade ahead of earnings from the major banks and the release of a slew of economic reports on Friday.

The NASDAQ Composite was the relative underperformer on Thursday, shedding 2.51% and snapping a three-day winning streak as technology stocks came under pressure, according to CNBC. Microsoft declined more than 4%, while Nvidia dipped 5%. Apple, Amazon, Meta, Netflix and Alphabet also closed lower.

At 06:21 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 15528.50, up 38.25 or +0.25%. On Thursday, the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) settled at $377.66, down $9.69 or -2.50%.

A slew of economic data will also be released Friday, including December retail sales numbers. Reports on industrial production and consumer sentiment will also be released later Friday morning.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A new main top was formed at 16009.25 on Thursday. A trade through this top will change the main trend to up. A move through 15152.50 will negate a closing price reversal bottom and signal the resumption of the downtrend.

The short-term range is 16659.50 to 15152.50. Its retracement zone at 15906.00 to 16084.00 is resistance. It stopped the buying at 16009.25 on Wednesday.

The main range is 14366.75 to 16768.00. Its retracement zone at 15567.50 to 15284.00 is currently being tested. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the futures contract.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 15567.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 15567.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum, we could see a retest of 15906.00 to 16084.00.

Overtaking 16009.25 will change the main trend to up. Overcoming 16084.00 could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 15567.25 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the Fibonacci level at 15284.00, followed by 15152.50.

A trade through 15152.50 will reaffirm the downtrend and put the index in a position to accelerate to the downside. The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the downside with 14587.25 and 14366.75 the next potential targets.