Natural Gas and Oil Analysis: IEA Cuts 2024 Demand to 1.22m bpd, USOIL Drops to $76

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Updated: Feb 15, 2024, 13:05 GMT+00:00

IEA's forecast cut to 1.22m bpd dims oil demand outlook, with USOIL dipping to $76 signaling market shifts.

Oil Market Trends: IEA’s Diminished Demand Forecast and Surging US Inventories

Oil prices dipped slightly as the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicated slowing demand growth for 2024, adjusting its forecast down to 1.22 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.24 million bpd. This, coupled with an unexpected surge in U.S. crude inventories, pressured oil benchmarks.

Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell near $80 and $76, respectively. The IEA also revised its supply growth forecast upwards to 1.7 million bpd.

The increase in U.S. inventories, attributed to reduced refinery activity and subdued demand, alongside economic recessions in Britain and Japan, signals a bearish outlook for USOIL, UKOIL, and potentially impacts Natural Gas as market dynamics shift.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas Price Chart

Natural Gas (NG) is currently trading at $1.6650, marking an increase of 1.28%. This movement positions Natural Gas in a bullish territory above its pivot point at $1.6221. Looking ahead, resistance levels are identified at $1.7982, followed by $1.9069, and extending to $2.0863, indicating potential upward momentum.

Conversely, immediate support is found at $1.5002, with subsequent levels at $1.3813 and $1.2493, providing floors for any pullbacks.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands significantly higher at $2.3195, with the 200-Day EMA even more elevated at $2.8539, suggesting a longer-term bearish trend.

Investors should monitor these technical levels closely, as a sustained movement above $1.6221 could signal further upside, while a dip below could shift the market sentiment.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

USOIL is trading at $75.65, marking a decrease of 1.13%. This dip situates USOIL below its pivot point at $76.40, indicating a bearish momentum. Looking forward, resistance levels are established at $78.18, $79.27, and $80.36, which could hinder upward movements.

Support levels are positioned at $74.87, $73.57, and further down at $72.56, providing potential areas for rebounds. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $76.01 and the 200-Day EMA at $74.90 offer mixed signals, with the current price nestled between these indicators.

This positioning suggests a pivotal moment for USOIL, as it hovers close to the 50 EMA but still above the 200 EMA. In summary, the outlook for USOIL is bearish below the $76.40 pivot point.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UKOIL Price Chart

UKOIL is presently priced at $80.84, reflecting a decrease of 0.72%. This movement situates UKOIL just above its pivot point at $80.82, indicating a delicate balance in the market. Resistance levels are identified at $82.09, escalating to $83.60 and further to $85.11, delineating potential ceilings for price ascents. Conversely, support is found at $79.58, with additional safeguards at $78.18 and $76.61, suggesting areas where buyers may re-enter.

The technical landscape, highlighted by a 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $81.12 and a 200-Day EMA at $80.01, portrays a market at a crossroads. The proximity of the current price to these EMAs underscores a nuanced market sentiment.

In conclusion, the stance on UKOIL is bearish below the critical resistance level of $82.09.

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About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.