Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Conflict Premium Gone – WTI $83 Next?

Oil and Gas Forecast in a Whirlwind as Conflict Premium Fades Away

The energy markets suddenly flipped on a dime as the geopolitical risk premiums were drastically rewritten. WTI crude skyrocketed to just shy of $120 a barrel at one point, driven by jitters over supply disruptions – specifically threats to pipelines and the major routes that carry the oil. And then, just as quickly, it plummeted back down to $87-$88 – which is a whopping 7-8% drop from the $94-$95 it had been trading at for a bit. Meanwhile, Brent crude slid right under $90-$93 in sync with all the other turmoil.

Natural gas was right on the same wild ride as traders frantically recalibrated their risk expectations. This chaotic move from “oh no, the supply is going to run out!” to “oh, maybe things won’t be so bad after all” reflects a major shift in the market, but let’s be clear – uncertainty is still running high. As key benchmarks pulled back from the extremes they had been at, the question on everyone’s mind is whether we’re going to see supplies stabilize, or the risks of some new disruption flashing up.

Natural gas also tracked the wild swings as traders flocked to reassess their expectations of risk. The chaotic price movement was a sign of supply anxiety easing, but uncertainty remains, and it’s still a major worry. With key benchmarks retracting from their extreme levels, the next move in the market will depend on whether we see supplies stabilize or disruption risks re-emerges.

Natural Gas Futures Stall at $3.12 – Can $2.97 Support Hold?

Natural gas is trading near $3.07 on the 4 hour chart – and the situation is a bit mixed after a price failed to break above $3.35 (0.236 Fib) and pulled back from the high of $3.49. We can see the price is now sort of consolidating around $3.12 (0.618 Fib) after a run of sharp red candles told us all about that strong selling from $3.49.

The price is still sitting above the uptrend from $2.78 and that 50 EMA near $2.97 which is now giving us some support. The first bit of resistance we can see is at $3.26 (0.382 Fib) and then $3.35. The RSI is pretty neutral at the moment – neither really pushing the price upwards or downwards.

If the price falls below $2.97 then we can expect to see it head down towards $2.89. If it manages to rise above $3.26 then the next target is $3.35.

Trade idea: If the price starts to move above $3.26 then you might want to consider buying – with a target of $3.35 and a stop at $2.97

WTI Crude Oil Pulls Back to $87 – Is $83 the Next Key Test?

WTI is at around $87.52 on the 4 hour chart – and it’s looking like it’s going to take some convincing to hold above $108.56. We’ve just seen a pretty stark reversal with price dropping below $96.47 and the strong selling from $119.43 is written all over the chart in the form of big fat red candles. Much closer to the current price, the candles around $87 are telling us that the price is trying to level out for now.

At the moment, the price is kind of stuck between resistance at $90.97 (0.618 Fib) and support at $83.23 (0.786 Fib). And yes, the uptrend from $73 is still intact – but it’s clear that the pace of that trend has slowed a fair bit. There’s still some momentum, but it’s not as strong as it used to be.

Trade idea: If the price starts to slip below $83, then you might want to consider selling – with a target of $80 and a stop loss at $90.50

Brent Crude Oil Holds $92 – Will $89 Support Decide the Next Move?

Brent crude is hovering around $92.59 on the 4 hour chart, which is what youd expect to see after a price was rejected at $110.55 and sold off from its high of $119.55. There’s a clear picture of panic selling in the form of those big red candles , but the price is now sort of consolidating above $89.57 (0.786 Fib).

Right now, the price is stuck in a rut between resistance at $95.98 (0.618 Fib) and support at $89.57. While the uptrend from $76 is still intact – so the overall trend is still positive – we are seeing some short term weakness. There’s also the 50 EMA which has come in to add an extra layer of support at around $88 to $89.

The RSI is still at around 45 – which means we’re seeing less momentum than we were – but thats not the same as saying the market is ready to turn. If the price falls below $89 then the next likely stop is $84. If it manages to climb back over $96 then were looking at a target of $100.

Trade idea: You might want to consider selling if the price starts to slip below $89.50, with the aim of reaching $84.00 and a stop loss at $96.00