Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Output and Sanction Risks Keep Markets Fragile

Market Overview

Oil and natural gas prices steadied midweek, with WTI crude climbing above $62 per barrel after U.S. inventories fell 2.4 million barrels, nearly double expectations. The draw signals resilient demand, yet gains remain limited as geopolitical tensions cloud the outlook.

Energy traders weigh the prospect of shifting global supply flows, including stronger Russian exports and higher OPEC+ output, which have pressured crude to a three-month low, down over 10% this month.

With uncertainty surrounding global negotiations and sanctions enforcement, both oil and gas markets face a fragile balance between supply risks and demand resilience.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are trading at $2.75, holding near short-term support at $2.73 after failing to sustain momentum above $2.88. The broader trend remains pressured by a descending trendline, keeping upside capped below the 50-EMA ($2.83) and 100-EMA ($2.88).

If price breaks lower, the next downside targets stand at $2.67 and $2.61. On the other hand, a rebound above $2.80–2.83 could open the way for a retest of $2.95.

The RSI at 36.3 signals weak momentum, leaning toward continued selling pressure unless buyers step in around current support. Until a clear break above the descending trendline, the market remains vulnerable to further downside extension.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading at $62.47, showing early signs of stabilization after testing the $61.55 support zone. Price action remains capped by a descending trendline, aligning closely with the 50-EMA ($62.57) and 100-EMA ($63.24), reinforcing overhead resistance.

A decisive close above these levels could open the way toward $64.14 and $65.12, while failure to clear may extend the downtrend. On the downside, a break under $61.55 exposes $60.72 and potentially $59.91.

Momentum indicators show improving sentiment, with the RSI recovering to 54, suggesting buyers are attempting to regain control. For now, the structure favors a cautious watch for a confirmed breakout rather than premature positioning.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading at $66.44, attempting to break above a descending trendline that has capped upside momentum since early August. Price is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle, with immediate resistance at $66.58 (100-EMA) and a stronger ceiling at $67.15.

A confirmed breakout above these levels could pave the way toward $68.15 and $69.14. On the downside, support rests at $65.30, followed by $64.61 if pressure builds. Momentum is improving, with the RSI at 58.4, suggesting growing bullish interest after a prolonged consolidation.

Until price clears the triangle’s upper boundary with volume, the market remains range-bound, favoring reactive trading strategies around support and resistance zones.