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Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Weak Demand and OPEC’s Stance Keep Energy Prices Under Pressure

By:
Arslan Ali
Published: Feb 4, 2025, 06:28 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • Natural gas prices fell 0.76% to $3.27, with bearish sentiment driven by weak demand and resistance near $3.46.
  • WTI crude oil dropped to $71.87, pressured by OPEC’s decision to maintain output and slowing global factory activity.
  • Brent crude struggles below $75.97, facing resistance at $77.03 amid a downward trend reinforced by bearish technical indicators.
Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Weak Demand and OPEC’s Stance Keep Energy Prices Under Pressure
In this article:

Market Overview

WTI crude oil futures fell to around $71.87 per barrel on Tuesday, erasing prior gains amid easing North American trade tensions. However, lingering uncertainty from global geopolitical tensions and upcoming tariffs on major economies continues to pressure energy markets.

Additionally, slowing factory activity in key importing nations signals weakened demand, further dampening oil and natural gas outlooks.

OPEC’s decision to maintain current production levels adds to market volatility, as supply remains steady despite fluctuating demand.

This combination of geopolitical uncertainty and fragile economic indicators suggests sustained pressure on energy prices in the near term.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart
Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $3.2790, down 0.76%, reflecting a cautious market mood. The price is hovering below the pivot point at $3.369, reinforcing a bearish bias. Immediate resistance sits at $3.469, with a stronger cap at $3.603—levels that, if breached, could trigger renewed bullish momentum.

On the downside, support holds at $3.164, with $2.989 acting as a safety net if selling pressure intensifies. The 50-EMA at $3.240 signals short-term weakness, while the 200-EMA at $3.322 adds to the bearish case.

A downward trendline remains in play, hinting that unless NG breaks above $3.369, sellers may maintain control. Watch for volume shifts around these key levels to gauge the next move.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart
WTI Price Chart

USOIL is trading at $71.87, down 0.53%, struggling to find footing below the key pivot point at $73.18. The bearish bias remains intact as prices consistently trade beneath the 50-EMA at $73.16, with the 200-EMA at $74.13 reinforcing downside pressure.

Immediate resistance lies at $74.53, and a push beyond $75.83 could shift sentiment toward a more bullish outlook.

On the flip side, support is holding at $70.64, with $69.42 as the next safety net if selling intensifies. The downward trendline suggests continued pressure unless oil can break convincingly above $73.18, signaling a potential reversal. Until then, the market leans bearish, with sellers firmly in control.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart
Brent Price Chart

UKOIL is trading at $75.10, down 0.54%, struggling to regain ground below the pivotal $75.97 mark. The price remains trapped within a downward channel, with the 50-EMA at $76.27 and the 200-EMA at $77.36 acting as strong overhead resistance. A break above $75.97 could spark bullish momentum, targeting $77.03 and $78.43. However, staying below this pivot keeps the bearish bias intact.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at $74.92, with a further slide potentially testing $73.73. The technical setup suggests sellers are in control unless UKOIL breaks convincingly above $75.97, signaling a possible shift in trend.

About the Author

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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