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Natural Gas Monthly Fundamental Forecast August 2015
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Outlook and Recommendation Natural Gas continued to fall as inventory climbed and residential use remained a bit lower than expected. NG is trading at
Outlook and Recommendation
Natural Gas continued to fall as inventory climbed and residential use remained a bit lower than expected. NG is trading at 2.713. The global rout in commodities hit everything across the board. Natural gas prices sank to a three-week low on Friday, as cooler weather forecasts convinced traders that summer demand won’t be enough to absorb near-record production. The stronger US dollar also took its toll on Natural Gas even though it is a US product only.
Weather forecasts for the coming weeks show heat dissipating and large parts of the country likely to get cooler-than-normal temperatures. In the spring, prices had rallied about 20% from a three-year low, but that was partially dependent on expectations that hot weather would cause power plants to burn off high supplies of natural gas to fuel higher demand for air conditioning.
Money managers still favor falling prices, but by the weakest margin in two months. However, this is the time that many start looking ahead to falling demand and prices going into the autumn, said Teri Viswanath, a natural-gas strategist at BNP Paribas SA in New York. The most recent hot spell could be the peak of the summer. “At this point, the market is weighing whether to write off the summer,” she said.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
WEEKLY DATA
Major Economic Events In August That You Should Be Monitoring:
|
Time |
Cur. |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
|||
|
Saturday, August 1, 2015 |
||||||||
|
05:00 |
CNY |
Manufacturing PMI (Jul) |
50.2 |
50.2 |
|
|||
|
Monday, August 3, 2015 |
||||||||
|
05:45 |
CNY |
HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Jul) |
|
|
48.2 |
|
||
|
11:55 |
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI (Jul) |
|
51.5 |
51.5 |
|
||
|
12:30 |
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI (Jul) |
|
51.6 |
51.4 |
|
||
|
18:00 |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) |
|
53.5 |
53.5 |
|
||
|
Tuesday, August 4, 2015 |
||||||||
|
05:30 |
AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) |
|
0.5% |
0.3% |
|
||
|
08:30 |
AUD |
Interest Rate Decision (Aug) |
|
2.00% |
2.00% |
|
||
|
12:30 |
GBP |
Construction PMI (Jul) |
|
58.4 |
58.1 |
|
||
|
Wednesday, August 5, 2015 |
||||||||
|
02:45 |
NZD |
Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2) |
|
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
||
|
12:30 |
GBP |
Services PMI (Jul) |
|
58.0 |
58.5 |
|
||
|
16:15 |
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment |
|
215K |
237K |
|
||
|
18:00 |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
|
56.2 |
56.0 |
|
||
|
Thursday, August 6, 2015 |
||||||||
|
05:30 |
AUD |
Employment Change (Jul) |
|
15.0K |
7.3K |
|
||
|
12:30 |
GBP |
Manufacturing Production |
|
0.2% |
-0.6% |
|
||
|
15:00 |
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision (Aug) |
|
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
||
|
Friday, August 7, 2015 |
||||||||
|
16:30 |
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) |
|
222K |
223K |
|
||
|
18:00 |
CAD |
Ivey PMI (Jul) |
|
53.0 |
55.9 |
|
||
|
Saturday, August 8, 2015 |
||||||||
|
06:00 |
CNY |
Trade Balance (Jul) |
|
|
46.54B |
|
||
|
Sunday, August 9, 2015 |
||||||||
|
06:00 |
CNY |
CPI (YoY) (Jul) |
|
|
1.4% |
|
||
|
Tuesday, August 11, 2015 |
||||||||
|
13:00 |
EUR |
German ZEW Economic |
|
|
29.7 |
|
||
|
Wednesday, August 12, 2015 |
||||||||
|
09:30 |
CNY |
Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul) |
|
|
6.8% |
|
||
|
12:30 |
GBP |
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
|
|
3.2% |
|
||
|
12:30 |
GBP |
Claimant Count Change (Jul) |
|
|
7.0K |
|
||
|
Thursday, August 13, 2015 |
||||||||
|
16:30 |
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) |
|
0.4% |
-0.1% |
|
||
|
Friday, August 14, 2015 |
||||||||
|
10:00 |
EUR |
German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) |
|
|
0.3% |
|
||
|
13:00 |
EUR |
CPI (YoY) (Jul) |
|
|
0.2% |
|
||
|
16:30 |
USD |
PPI (MoM) (Jul) |
|
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
||
|
Tuesday, August 18, 2015 |
||||||||
|
12:30 |
GBP |
CPI (YoY) (Jul) |
|
|
|
|
||
|
Thursday, August 20, 2015 |
||||||||
|
12:30 |
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) |
|
|
-0.2% |
|
||
|
Friday, August 21, 2015 |
||||||||
|
16:30 |
CAD |
Core CPI (MoM) (Jul) |
|
|
|
|
||
|
16:30 |
CAD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) |
|
|
0.9% |
|
||
|
Monday, August 31, 2015 |
||||||||
|
|
Holiday |
United Kingdom – Summer Bank Holiday |
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About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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