Natural Gas News: Futures Fall Today as Cooling Weather Hits Demand Forecast

Natural Gas Futures Slide as Cooling Weather and Ample Storage Weigh on Prices

U.S. natural gas futures slipped Tuesday, pressured by milder weather forecasts and robust storage levels that have dulled near-term bullish sentiment. September Nymex contracts traded lower after failing to break above technical resistance at $2.966, with sellers targeting key support zones near $2.764 and $2.748.

At 13:21 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $2.789, down $0.101 or -3.49%.

Is the Recent Cooldown in U.S. Weather Dragging on Natural Gas Demand?

Weather remains a primary driver, and the latest models are providing little support. According to NatGasWeather, a strong upper ridge remains in control through Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 80s to 100s across much of the country. However, the forecast turns cooler midweek, especially across the Midwest, Northeast, and Ohio Valley, with highs dropping to the 60s and 70s.

The 8–15 day outlook trends even cooler, showing the dominant ridge weakening and retreating into the southern U.S. That’s keeping national cooling degree days (CDDs) near or slightly below normal—hardly the setup for a late-summer demand surge.

What Does the Latest EIA Storage Report Signal for Price Action?

The EIA reported a 56 Bcf injection into storage for the week ending August 8, bringing total inventories to 3,186 Bcf. That’s 79 Bcf below last year’s levels but still 196 Bcf above the five-year average. Regional builds were broad-based, with the East and Midwest adding 21 Bcf each.

Even with stockpiles running slightly behind last year, current levels remain well within the five-year range, muting any urgency for supply-side concerns. Traders are viewing the steady pace of injections—and the likelihood of continued moderate weather—as evidence that end-of-season storage targets can be met without price pressure.

Can Technical Levels Offer Direction as Bears Push Lower?

September futures are holding just above last week’s low at $2.764, with longer-term support at $2.748 and $2.574 now in focus. Resistance remains firm at the short-term pivot of $2.956 and minor swing top at $2.966. A decisive move above these levels would be required to shift short-term momentum higher, with $3.236 then coming into play.

But for now, price action favors the downside. Without fresh bullish catalysts—like unexpected heat, LNG demand surprises, or storm-driven outages—the market appears set to test lower technical levels.

Short-Term Outlook: Bearish

With the weather cooling, storage builds steady, and technical support levels under pressure, the short-term outlook for natural gas remains bearish. A test of $2.748 looks likely unless forecast models turn hotter or demand rebounds more aggressively. Traders should watch for any support reactions near this level, as a failure could open the door toward $2.574.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.