Natural Gas News: Today’s EIA Report May Jolt Futures in Tight Technical Zone

Natural Gas Futures Edge Higher as Traders Eye Moving Average Breakout

U.S. natural gas futures are climbing modestly Thursday, as the market consolidates recent gains and holds above a critical technical level. After recapturing the 200-day moving average at $3.552 earlier this week, prices are now wedged between long-term support and near-term resistance, setting the stage for a potential breakout.

Will the 50-Day Moving Average Cap Gains or Trigger a Rally?

Futures are currently consolidating between the 200-day and 50-day moving averages, with the latter positioned around $3.900. This tight trading range suggests that a move through either level could bring increased volatility. A breakout above the 50-day could spark aggressive short-covering, particularly with technical traders watching the zone closely. Conversely, any dip below the 200-day may not trigger a selloff but instead be seen as a buying opportunity, reinforcing the level’s strength as a long-term support.

EIA Storage Report Points to Bigger-Than-Normal Build

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to report a storage build of +111–114 Bcf for the past week, well above the five-year average of +98 Bcf. This would mark the sixth straight week of 100+ Bcf injections. The build reflects a cooler-than-average eastern U.S., coupled with above-average temperatures in the West and southern states. One factor skewing expectations is the impact of the Memorial Day holiday, along with lighter wind generation compared to the prior week. Some forecasts, including internal estimates, peg the build closer to +109 Bcf. Regardless, the number confirms ongoing bearish supply momentum.

NatGasWeather Forecasts Tepid Demand into Mid-June

Weather forecasts through June 11 show generally light to moderate national demand. Highs in the 80s to 90s will dominate the South and East, with triple-digit heat in California and parts of the Southwest. Meanwhile, the Midwest, Plains, and Ohio Valley will see more comfortable temperatures, keeping demand soft. The Pacific Northwest is expected to heat up into the weekend, but not enough to offset broader national softness. This temperate outlook continues to cap near-term bullish enthusiasm.

Market Forecast: Bullish Setup with a Cautious Trigger

While weather and storage trends point to ongoing softness in fundamental demand, the technical setup suggests potential for a bullish breakout if futures clear $3.90. The tight consolidation zone may not hold much longer, and the risk skew is currently to the upside, especially if short-covering accelerates. Traders should watch the 50-day average as a near-term inflection point.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.