Natural Gas (NG) Futures Technical Analysis – Weakens Under $1.926, Strengthens Over $1.949

Natural gas futures retreated on Friday, but still managed to post a 3.29% gain for the week. Prices fell after the latest weather models indicated near-term warmer trends. Spot gas prices were also pressured as temperatures were set to warm over the weekend. Natural Gas Intelligence’s Spot Gas National Average dropped 10.5 cents to $1.705.

On Friday, April Natural Gas settled at $1.917, down 0.009 or -0.47%.

Prices ran up on Thursday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a larger-than-expected storage withdrawal, but declined as weather data showed late-February cold moderating into March, according to NatGasWeather.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. Momentum shifted to the upside early last week, but then turned back down at the end of the week.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through $2.024. A move through $1.788 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is down. It turned up on Monday, but then back down on Thursday, highlighting last week’s volatile price action.

The main range is $2.196 to $1.788. Its retracement zone at $1.992 to $2.040 stopped the rally at $2.024 on February 20.

The short-term range is $1.788 to $2.024. Its retracement zone at $1.906 to $1.878 stopped the selling on Friday at $1.874.

The minor range is $1.831 to $2.024. Its 50% level at $1.928 provided resistance on Friday.

A second minor range is $2.024 to $$1.874. Its 50% level $1.949 is additional resistance.

The market also filled in the gap on the daily chart at $1.872 to $1.919.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s price action and the close at $1.917, the direction of the April Natural Gas market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor 50% level at $1.949 and the downtrending Gann angle at $1.926.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1.949 will indicate the presence of buyers. This will also put the market on the strong side of an uptrending Gann angle at $1.948. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the main 50% level at $1.992, followed by the main top at $2.024 and the main Fibonacci level at $2.040.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under the downtrending Gann angle at $1.296 will signal the presence of sellers. Potential support is layered at $1.906, $1.878 and $1.868.

The uptrending Gann angle at $1.868 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with potential targets at $1.831, $1.828 and $1.808. The latter is the last potential support angle before the $1.788 main bottom.