Natural Gas Price Forecast: $2.62 Support Faces Critical Test

Critical Support Zone Under Pressure

Natural gas continued its bearish decline to a new trend low of $2.62 during Monday’s session, as it challenged a key support zone. It is testing support near the prior swing low and monthly low, which define the structure of the uptrend begun from the 2024 lows at $2.62 from August. The bearish trend continuation signal will confirm on a daily close below the prior trend low of $2.63. However, the reaction from the $2.62 price zone is what is most important to watch next. Either clear support is established, or a decisive breakdown leads to lower prices and possibly an acceleration in the decline since a key support level will have been broken.

Short-Term Momentum Points Toward Retest Risk

Given signs of short-term bearish momentum, it looks likely that at least an undercut of the $2.62 low is likely. There is then a downtrend line that marks possible dynamic support. A breakout above that line in October triggered a falling wedge breakout. Subsequently, the area around the line was recognized as support twice. The two most recent swing lows, in January and February, found support near the trendline. This shows the market has repeatedly found support near this trendline, and therefore it may do so again.

Structural Breakdown Levels and Deeper Targets

Moreover, a decisive decline below that line will show weakness. That would also further confirm a bearish reversal signal for the long-term uptrend on a move below the August swing low. An eventual test of support would then extend down to a range from around $2.30 to $2.21. That range combines a swing high and swing low, respectively. There is also a rising channel line added that shows a 50% downside extension of the original channel.

Long-Term Trend Signals Continue to Deteriorate

Recent long-term bearish signals for natural gas have been accumulating, with the developing pattern further confirming earlier signals. In February, the long-term uptrend support line was broken, quickly leading to a break below the higher swing low of $3.01 from January. Subsequent strength was met with resistance near key levels and indicators, including the 200-day average. Then last week the interim higher swing low from September was broken to the downside, along with the prior trend low of $2.78 from late-February being broken.

Overall, price action now returns to a critical decision zone at $2.62, where either stabilization or breakdown will likely define the next major directional phase of a long-term trend.