Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bearish Reversal Signals Potential Test of $2.91 Support

Natural Gas Reversal Below 50-Day Average

Natural gas confirmed a bearish reversal on Wednesday, falling to a five-day low of $3.01 at the time of writing. The session high was $3.12, just above the 50-Day moving average at $3.10, but the failure to close above that line underscores its role as resistance. Importantly, no daily close has been recorded above the 50-Day average since July 18, highlighting the broader weakness.

Key Resistance Zone

Recent highs have clustered around the 50-Day average and a long-term uptrend line that once served as dynamic support. Together, these levels define a significant resistance zone. The inability to clear this area reinforces bearish implications. From here, a decline toward the anchored VWAP at $2.96 and the 20-Day moving average at $2.91 appears likely. The 20-Day line carries greater weight since it is reinforced by a 50% retracement level and has recently turned higher after flattening.

Critical Test of Support Ahead

Price behavior around the 20-Day average will be pivotal. With the long-term uptrend line now acting as resistance, the door remains open for a potential retest of the recent swing low at $2.62—or even lower if momentum builds. Conversely, if natural gas finds support and prints a bullish reversal at or above the 20-Day line, a fresh attempt to clear this week’s $3.20 high could emerge.

Weekly Context Still Bullish

Despite Wednesday’s setback, the weekly chart still reflects signs of strength. Two weeks ago, natural gas formed a bullish engulfing pattern off the $2.62 swing low. That week’s high exceeded the prior two weekly highs, and the close settled above $3.00. This bullish price action provides scope for consolidation rather than outright failure, suggesting another challenge to the $3.20 level remains possible once short-term weakness runs its course.

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