Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bearish Trend Pressures Key Support Levels

Bear Trend Deepens Below Key Support

Natural gas remained under pressure on Wednesday, as a new low for the three-week decline was hit at $2.79. This further confirmed the breakdown of a short-term rising trendline and a continuation of the three-week bear trend. Therefore, the risk of a continuation signal on a drop below the larger trend low at $2.78 is increasing. At this rate, natural gas could end the week at its lowest weekly closing price since the higher swing low of $2.77 established in September.

Failed Rally Reinforces Bearish Structure

Given recent long-term bearish signals and tightening consolidation, the risk of a breakdown continues to increase unless there is an unexpected advance in the near future. The rally that resulted in a lower swing high at $3.49 in early March was a successful test of resistance near the 200-day moving average, after which weakness followed. The bearish response after that advance was a reaction to the breakdown below the long-term uptrend line that triggered on February 17. Most of the recent consolidation behavior was also contained largely below that trendline, further confirming the significance of the breakdown and adding evidence for a potential continuation.

Key Breakdown Level Near $2.78

A decisive decline below the $2.78 trend low will trigger a continuation towards the next key price level near the higher swing low from August at $2.62. A falling trendline that previously showed resistance may be near that zone and could provide additional information. Notice that it was successfully tested twice previously, with a bullish reversal following each time. The latest was at the trend low in February and before that at the swing low in January. Therefore, it may represent a support area again.

Lower Support Zone in Focus

If the August swing low is broken, then a new bearish reversal signal for the long-term uptrend will occur. A decisive decline below the August low could lead to a decline toward the next key price support zone from structure, starting around $2.30, reinforcing the broader bearish outlook that began with the breakdown of the rising trendline and suggesting continued downside risk into lower support zones.

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