Bitcoin Is on the Brink of a Knockdown

Technical Pressure Builds Across Cryptocurrency Markets

The crypto market capitalisation has fallen by 5.2% over the past seven days to $2.56 trillion, with the decline accelerating in the second half of the week. Over the past 24 hours, the decline amounted to 1.5%, with selling pressure mounting at the start of Asian trading and a pullback towards the 50-day moving average and the lows seen in late April. The market is now approaching a point at which the bulls’ strength will be tested.

A move lower would technically break the uptrend that has been in place since early April, and dash hopes of an end to the bear market that has been ongoing since October. Among the most active coins, roughly one in ten is rising, with the heaviest losses seen in Bitcoin Cash (-11.6%), Official Trump (-5.5%) and Doge (-4.6%). Zcash (+3%), Toncoin (+1.8%) and Cosmos (+0.9%) are gaining ground.

Bitcoin appears to be in the bears’ grip. Repeated failures to break above the 200-day moving average have sent the market into a downtrend, pushing the price of the leading cryptocurrency down to $76.6K. A 6% loss over less than four days is hardly a capitulation, but rather a disappointment for those who actively bought crypto in April.

This corrective pullback has knocked the price out of the growth channel of the past month and a half. However, the uptrend is not formally considered broken until the price falls below previous local lows. And right now, the market is teetering on the edge. A breach below $76K could trigger an acceleration of the decline, with potential targets near $65K.

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According to SoSoValue, net outflows from spot BTC ETFs amounted to $1 billion over the week, the highest since late January. Outflows from US spot Ethereum ETFs have persisted for two of the last three weeks, totalling $255 million over the week.

Bitcoin has returned to the average purchase price for short-term whales for the third time since October — the $79K–$80K range, notes analyst MorenoDV. The previous two similar tests in October 2025 and January 2026 ended in heavy selloffs.

Bitcoin’s share on centralised crypto exchanges has fallen to 5.6% of the total coin supply, a six-year low, according to Santiment. Large investors continue to move BTC into long-term storage outside of trading platforms.

Ethereum’s correlation with Bitcoin and the technology sector will weaken in the future. Growth drivers will be the development of DeFi, the tokenisation of real-world assets, and the integration of AI into the blockchain, according to SharpLink, a company accumulating Ethereum in its reserves and the second largest in terms of volume after BitMine.

Strategy is prepared to sell part of its BTC holdings to repurchase its own convertible bonds, according to a filing with the SEC. The company plans to spend approximately $1.38 billion on the buyback, with the transaction scheduled to close by 19 May.

Following the latest adjustment, Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by 3.12% to 136.61 T. The figure has fallen by approximately 8% since the start of the year and is more than 12% below the all-time high recorded in October.

The FxPro Analyst Team