Natural Gas Price Forecast – natural gas futures rally slightly on Friday

Natural gas markets rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday, breaking above the $3.00 level. That’s an area that of course has a certain amount of psychological importance attached to it, but what I find more interesting than that is the gap above that should go and get filled. I believe that the $3.27 level will be resistance, so I think that once that gap gets filled, selling some type of exhaustive looking candle is probably the best way to approach this market. If we can get above there, I think it’s much more resistive at the $3.50 level as well. I like the idea of fading this market, but we have gotten a bit ahead of ourselves to the downside.

NATGAS Video 07.01.19

Looking at this chart, I think that the fact that we are oversold is something that you should be paying attention to, so breaking down below the candle stick from the previous session on Thursday – although a sell signal – the market is so overdone that I would be cautious about being caught in a bear trap. I prefer to fade rallies as it gives us an opportunity to build up a bit of momentum. I believe the $3.00 level is the scene of significant support, and as we have fallen so far in such a short amount of time, I think that it’s difficult to expect more momentum to the downside in the short term. However, if we rally $0.30, that’s an entirely different conversation going forward.