Natural gas markets have rallied yet again during the day on Thursday as we continue to weigh the devastation in the Gulf of Mexico, and whether or not supply continues to be disrupted.
Natural gas markets initially pulled back during the trading session on Thursday but then turned around to show signs of support again at the $4.60 level. Quite frankly, this is a bit of a surprise as this is the wrong time of year to see this type of move, unless of course you start to think about Louisiana and the surrounding states in the Gulf of Mexico. A lot of the natural gas refinery is in that area, and therefore it is not even necessarily going to be about the supply of natural gas, but more likely the lack of supply of the finished product.
With that being said, it is extraordinarily dangerous to be getting into the market now. If you are already long of the natural gas markets, then I would suggest that perhaps some more around $4.40 is the “floor the market” at the moment, so a break down below that level could signify an opportunity to pick up a little bit of value. At this point, I would not be overly surprising to see this market reaching towards the $5.00 level.
That of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and one would wonder whether or not there would be fresh selling at that point. Nonetheless, we are getting overbought, so I think it is a bit difficult to get involved. As far as shorting is concerned, that seems to be very dangerous as well, as we continue to see a lot of panic buying. I think the next couple of days could see a nasty correction, which at this point will more than likely be a buying opportunity.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.