Natural Gas Price Forecast: Range Breakout Could Define Next Move

Weekly Indecision

Natural gas ended the week with a shortened session on Friday due to a U.S. holiday. Indecision ruled the week as a narrow range doji candlestick pattern formed. The closing price for the week was near $3.25 and the open was also close to $3.25. So, the week provided little additional useful information, although a breakthrough above or below either side of this range could be the beginning of a persistent move in that direction.

Upside Structure and Breakout Potential

On the upside, last week’s high of $3.32 has greater significance than this week’s high, as it is a three-week high. A decisive rally above it would signal a breakout of this range and increase the potential to target the recent resistance zone near the $3.42 level. Natural gas has formed a rising broadening formation over the past eight weeks.

Further evidence of strengthening bullish structure was indicated over the past month as support repeatedly held near the 20-week moving average. This shows the progression of a bullish move on the weekly timeframe. It suggests further upside and progression of the ascending consolidation pattern, as prior dynamic resistance has transitioned to a support indicator.

Key Resistance Confluence Zone

The recent high, along with the 200-day moving average and lower swing high from March, show the initial upside target zone if price continues to strengthen. Together, they mark an upside range from $3.42 to $3.49. If that top level is exceeded, a bullish trend reversal signal is generated and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior downtrend at $3.53 becomes a target, followed by the long-term uptrend line.

Support Levels and Bearish Risk

A decline below this week’s low would put natural gas in a position to test weekly support near last week’s low of $3.06 and the 20-week moving average, also at $3.06. An uptrend line is also aligned with that price zone, adding to its potential significance as a pivot zone. Notably, last week produced a bullish engulfing pattern, reflecting a shift toward buyer control, and reinforcing the broader support structure beneath current price action.

Pattern Transition and Market Equilibrium

Last week, a bullish engulfing week was established, reflecting a move to buyer control. A similar pattern occurred on the prior swing low the week of May 25. It completed a bullish engulfing week. This transition between consolidation-driven indecision, as seen in the weekly doji structure, and prior bullish engulfing signals highlights a market alternating between equilibrium and directional expansion, leaving the current range breakout as the next key inflection point.

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