Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Continue to Recover Toward 50-Day EMA

Natural Gas Price Forecast Video for 16.05.23

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets continue to show a lot of noisy behavior but are in the midst of trying to recover from extreme lows. Whether or not they can for an extended amount of time remains to be seen, but quite frankly it looks to me as if the market is just simply settling into a summer range. This of course, would be a situation where we probably have some limited upside, but at this point, the market is likely to continue to see the 50-Day EMA as a potential barrier. If we can break above there, then the market could go looking to the $2.50 level and then possibly be as high as the $3.00 level. The $3.00 level is more likely than not going to be at the top of the overall summer range, and breaking above that would probably take some type of significant heat wave.

More likely than not, you will get an opportunity to short this market yet again, as demand for natural gas will probably be somewhat degraded, as the temperatures are going to be warmer, so there won’t be as many concerns about the European demand. However, eventually, European demand will be a major issue, as we will have to pay close attention to the fact that Russian gas is still not going to be part of the supply chain, later this year we will certainly have a lot of problems when it comes to fueling the European Union, which will almost certainly be due to exports coming out of the United States. In this scenario, natural gas will probably be very explosive, pun intended. In that environment, I do expect that natural gas will be a great trade to the upside, but that’s probably going to be coming later this year, not right now.

In the meantime, I think it’s easier to sell signs of exhaustion in order to take advantage of the overall downtrend, and therefore think you’ve got a scenario where the $2.00 level almost certainly be tested again. If we break down below there, then it’s possible that we could go down to the $1.80 level over the next several weeks, but I think that’s probably about as low as this market goes anytime soon.

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