Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Drift Lower in Holiday Trading
Natural Gas Price Forecast Video for 30.05.23
Natural Gas Technical Analysis
Natural gas markets have fallen a bit during the trading session on Monday, in thin electronic trading. Natural gas futures have been drifting a bit lower for a while, so now I think we probably head down to the $2.00 level, an area that has been a major support level. If we were to break down below there, then it’s likely that we go down to the $1.80 level, which is the bottom of the overall “support area” that sits in that region.
On the other hand, if we were to turn around and rally from here, the 50-Day EMA could open up the possibility of a move toward the $3.00 level. The $3.00 level above is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that a lot of people will be paying close attention to, and therefore I think we would see a bit of a fight in that area. If we were to break above the $3.00 level, then it’s possible that we could go all the way to the $4.00 level over the longer term.
In general, I think this is only a matter of time before we see some type of longer-term “buy-and-hold” scenario, but that’s probably later in the summer when the Europeans have to refill their natural gas storage. After all, they will not be buying Russian gas, and Norway can only supply so much makeup for the difference. With that, I think we got a situation where the market probably continues to see more of a “fade the rally” type of situation between now and then, but once we get toward the end of summer, it would not surprise me at all to see natural gas take off to the upside.
In general, I think this is a situation where we continue to go back and forth between $2.00 on the bottom and $3.00 level on the top, and a range-bound system could be employed over the next several weeks in order to pick up bits and pieces of the market here and there. Given enough time, we will break out of this area, but right now I just don’t think we have the momentum.
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