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Christopher Lewis
Natural gas daily chart, November 22, 2019

The natural gas markets have been a bit noisy during the trading session on Thursday as the inventory figures have come out. They have come out more bullish than anticipated, as the reading was -94 billion, as opposed to the anticipated -86 billion. This suggests that the market is probably going to continue to see a lot of back and forth, but as we are in the beginning of the coldest part of the year, it makes quite a bit of sense that natural gas will continue to be used up by the northern hemisphere. With that, we are typically in a cyclically bullish time.

NATGAS Video 22.11.19

At this point, we can break above the highs from the trading session on Thursday it’s likely that the market could then go to the $2.75 level, which is where a gap is formed. If we can break above the top of that gap, then the market is free to go much higher, with the initial target being the $3.00 level. At this point, I don’t have any interest in shorting natural gas although I do recognize that there is a gap underneath at the $2.40 level that has yet to be filled, but at this point we don’t necessarily have to go filling it now, it could be something that happens much later. All things being equal I expect a lot of noise, but I do believe that value hunters will continue to return to this market. I have no interest in trying to go against the cyclical trade right now.

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