Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Limp Into the Weekend

Natural gas markets have gone back and forth during the trading session on Friday to limp into the weekend. That being said, the market certainly looks as if you could make an argument for a bullish flag, which would measure for a move to roughly $4.40 above. This is quite interesting, because if you take the measured move of the consolidation area previously, which formed a huge rectangle, it also measured for a move to the $4.40 level. This suggests to me that we are more likely than not to see the market break higher from here.

NATGAS Video 12.07.21

If we break above the $3.80 level, then it is likely that the market goes looking towards the $4 handle, which of course will have a significant amount of psychological importance as well. On the other hand, if we were to turn on a breakdown below the $3.60 level, it is likely that the market could fall back towards the $3.40 level which has not been retested after the breakout. At that level, I would anticipate that the 50 day EMA would come into the picture as well. With that being the case, I would anticipate that this market could give us an opportunity to pick up a bit of value in that area. As long as we stay above the $3.40 level, then we are still very much in an uptrend.

However, if we were to break down below that level, then we would have to reassess everything. Cyclically and seasonally speaking, this is typically a very negative time of the year for this market, so that could come into play eventually.

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