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Christopher Lewis
Natural gas daily chart, October 02, 2018

Natural gas markets rallied significantly on Monday, reaching towards the $3.10 level. Overall, I think that the market continues to grind back and forth, but obviously we have more of an upward proclivity as of late. The question now is whether or not we can break out? I think we may eventually, and I think that the markets are certainly starting to show that we are trying to, but ultimately this is a market that I think will continue to be extraordinarily choppy, but that’s nothing new for natural gas traders. If we are to break above the $3.10 level, we probably go looking towards the $3.20 next.

However, if we pull back from here I think we continue to hang out in this range overall with the $2.95 level underneath being the “floor” of general consolidation. This is a market that moves on short-term weather forecasts, so keep in mind that you need to be on top of those, and of course the inventory numbers are come out weekly as well. If we were to turn around and break down below the $2.95 level, that would be an extraordinarily negative sign, triggering a selloff that was a lead by a shooting star from the previous weekly chart. However, right now it looks like we are trying to break the back of resistance, so I would be cautious about trying to short until that happens. Expect a lot of back and forth, but a fresh, new high certainly could be an enticing buying opportunity.

NATGAS Video 02.10.18

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