Natural gas markets rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, showing $4.00 to be supportive again. This is an area that I think continues to be important, as it is not only a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but it also has the 50 day EMA just below it. Because of this, I think it’s likely that the market will continue to find reasons to react to this big figure. However, we have just broken down below the bottom of the massive triangle I have marked on the chart, and as you can see it’s likely that we will continue to see sellers on rallies.
NATGAS Video 14.12.18
Natural gas markets had gotten a bit ahead of themselves, and now I think that people are starting to look at them as being a bit too expensive, and that will be especially true once we start to trade Spring contracts. Because of this, I think we are getting relatively close to the end of the seasonal run to the upside, and I do believe that plenty of natural gas suppliers out there will be more than willing to flood the market with supply at these high levels. Once we break down below the $4.00 level, then I think the market has the ability to go down to the $3.75 level, and then eventually the $3.50 level. I have no interest in buying, and I prefer to short the market on short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion, something that we will almost undoubtedly see several times.