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Christopher Lewis
Natural gas daily chart, October 14, 2019

Natural gas markets rally during the trading session on Friday, breaking above the $2.25 level to the upside late in the day. At this point, the candle stick for the Thursday session will be crucial to pay attention to, because it then could become an “inverted hammer”, which of course is very bullish once it gets broken to the upside. There will be a lot of sellers that will suddenly be trapped if that gets broken, and then I anticipate that the market will go looking towards the red 50 day EMA.

NATGAS Video 14.10.19

To the downside, if we break down below the lows of the trading session on Friday, it’s very likely that the market could drop to the $2.15 level, and then perhaps even the $2.00 level. That being said, I am still not interested in selling although we have obviously seen a significant move lower. This is because the demand for natural gas will start to pick up quite drastically rather soon. We are trading the November contract currently, and that of course suggests that we will start to focus on cold-weather. Ultimately, we have a lot of concerns out there when it comes to the next cold snap, and as this market tends to be very short term focus, we could get a sudden rush to the exits for the sellers. That’s essentially the trade I’m waiting on, and it obviously will take a significant amount of patience to get there. However, once this trade kicks off it will be brutal. In the short term I do think that a bounce to the 50 day EMA is very possible.

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