Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Rangebound Until Weather Forecast is Released

Natural gas futures are trading flat-to-higher as traders continue to interpret the current weather forecasts and their impact on future demand. The early price action suggests the week-end weather came out exactly as forecast and with no surprises.

At 0600, September natural gas is trading $2.977, up 0.006 or +0.20%.

The current price action suggests a balance market. The market is trading in a range and traders are respecting a number of retracement levels at $3.006, $2.972 and $2.935. Straddling these levels for fifth day will indicate investor indecision and impending volatility.

Forecast

The current price action strongly suggests investors are waiting for the next weather forecast. The market is in the strong hands of the short-sellers so they can be patient. It’s the aggressive, counter-trend buyers that are nervous.

Bullish traders need the forecast to show the current high pressure dome covering the country will continue into at least the end of the month and into August. If temperatures return to normal then this could put a lid on the rally and lead to lower prices.

All we can do today is sit tight until the new weather forecasts come out. The chart pattern suggests an upside bias could develop on a sustained move over $3.006 and a downside bias under $2.935. Otherwise, prices could just fluctuate between these levels, marking time until traders get fresh news.