Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Break Out as Weather Remains Warmer than Normal

Natural gas prices broke out to fresh contract high on Tuesday the second consecutive day with a higher close. Warmer than normal weather is expected to cover most of the United States over the next 6-10 and 8-14 days. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, there are no tropical storms in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico that are expected to become tropical cyclones over the next 48-hours.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved higher on Tuesday broke out. The August contract closed at an all-time high for the second consecutive trading session. Target resistance is now the 2018 highs at 4.92. Support is seen near the former highs at 3.82 and then the 10-day moving average at 3.70. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line crosses above the MACD signal line. The MACD histogram also generated a crossover buy signal.

Mexican Exports Rise

Average Exports per day of Natural gas to Mexico surpassed 7 Bcf in June. According to the EIA the record for the month was 7.4 Bcf per day as increased power demand and greater industrial demand drove volumes. Additionally, new pipeline capabilities in the U.S. and Mexico have facilities the interconnections throughout Mexico to natural gas-fired power plants.