Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Drop Following Inventory Report

Natural gas prices moved lower on Thursdays following the inventory report from the Department of Energy. Expectations are for inventories to climb by 28 Bcd according to survey provider Estimize. The weather is expected to remain colder than normal for the next 6-10 and 8-14 days according to a recent forecast from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices slumped on Thursday following the inventory report from the EIA. Prices made a lower high and a lower low.  Resistance is seen near former support at the 50-day moving average at 1.82. Additional support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1.68. Short term momentum has flipped flopped and turned negative. The fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum remains positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

Inventories Grew More than Expected

The EIA reported that natural gas in storage was 2,024 Bcf as of Friday, April 3, 2020. This represents a net increase of 38 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 28 Bcf build. Stocks were 876 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 324 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,700 Bcf. At 2,024 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.