Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Fall Following Inventory Report

Natural gas prices moved lower on Thursday following the Energy Departments inventory report. Prices have given back most of last week’s gains. The weather is expected to be warmer than normal for most of the US over the next two weeks which should increase cooling demand. That will likely be offset by the slowing of the reopening of the US economy due to the rise in the spread of COVID. There is one disturbance in the Atlantic near North Carolina that has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved lower on Thursday declining by approximately 2%. Prices are poised to test support near the 10-day moving average near 1.75. Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1.91. Short term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum is positive and turning neutral as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in the black with a decelerating trajectory which points to consolidation.

Natural Gas Storage Was in Line with Expectations

Natural gas inventories rose to 3,133 Bcf as of Friday, July 3, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 56 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 57 Bcf build in stockpiles according to survey provider Estimize. Stocks were 685 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 454 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,679 Bcf. At 3,133 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.