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Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Form Inside Day ahead of Inventory Report

Prices form inside day
David Becker

Natural gas prices whipsawed forming an inside day on Wednesday ahead of Thursday’s inventory report scheduled to be released by the Department of Energy. Expectations are for a 40 Bcf draw in natural gas inventories according to survey provider Estimize. Inventories declined by 28 Bcf last week as slowing demand buoyed stockpiles. Supply during the latest week was flat according to the EIA.

Technical analysis

Natural gas prices declined by 1.4% on Wednesday following a 5% rebound on Tuesday. The increase in volatility is what is expected after the market breaks down. After a technical breakdown prices generally chop sideways testing resistance and support level before breaking down again. Resistance near the breakdown level near 2.47. Support is seen near last week’s lows near 2.27. Medium-term momentum is negative as the MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices. Short term momentum continues to whipsaw generating a crossover buy signal on Tuesday and is now poised to generate a crossover sell signal. This type of pattern reflects consolidation.

The EIA Reports Flat Supply

The Energy Information Administration reports that supply is flat despite increases in production. According to data from the EIA, the average total supply of natural gas remained the same as in the previous report week, averaging 100.2 Bcf per day. Dry natural gas production grew by 1% compared with the previous report week. The average net imports from Canada decreased by 17% from last week.

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