Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Move Higher on Warm Weather Forecast

Natural gas prices moved higher on Monday after bouncing from its lows on Friday. The weather is expected to be warmer than average throughout the North East for the next 6-10days and than moderate but remains warmer than normal throughout most of the country. There is one disturbance with a 10% chance to become tropical cyclones in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico over the next 48-hours.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices were higher on Monday rising after dropping sharply on Friday Support is seen near the 10-day moving average near 3.95. Resistance is seen near the July highs at 4.19. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term positive momentum is negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs when the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line.

Natural Gas Storage Rises but Trajectory is Sideways

The net injections into storage totaled 36 Bcf for the week ending July 23, compared with the five-year average net injections of 28 Bcf and last year’s net injections of 27 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 2,714 Bcf, which is 168 Bcf lower than the five-year average and 523 Bcf lower than last year at this time. The trajectory of the movements of inventory injections is sideways as opposed to rising into the beginning of the withdrawal season.