Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise but Remain Rangebound

Natural gas prices continued to trading in a tight range. The weather is expected to be colder than normal over the next 6-10 days in the East Coast and the mid-Atlantic. This followed a warmer than expected period which increased cooling demand.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved higher on Friday but remained rangebound. Target resistance is seen near the February highs at 3.06. Short-term resistance is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 2.97. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.92. The 10-day moving average crossed above the 50-day moving average, which means that a medium-term uptrend is now in place. Short-term momentum has turned positive fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum is positive but decelerating as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in positive territory with a sliding trajectory which points to consolidation.

Warm Weather Drives Cooling Demand

Warm weather increases cooling demand. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 0.4% compared with the previous report week, according to the EIA. Natural gas consumed for power generation climbed by 4.1% week over week, as temperatures were warmer than normal for most of the country, increasing cooling demand. Industrial sector consumption decreased by 3.3% week over week. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption declined slightly by 0.4%.