Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise Sharply Following Inline Inventory Report

Natural gas prices reversed again on Thursday rising higher following the Department of Energy’s inventory report. According to NOAA, the weather is expected to remain warmer than normal over the next 6-10 and 8-14 days. Hurricane Sam continues to swirl in the Atlantic along with the new tropical storm Victory which is also expected to remain in the Atlantic and not hit any natural gas installations.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices reversed course, rising nearly 7% after falling 7% on Wednesday. Prices made a lower low and a lower high and close near session highs. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 5.27. Resistance is seen near the September highs at 6.32. Short-term momentum has reversed and turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum remains positive, but it decelerates as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in positive territory with a declining trajectory that points to consolidation.

Inventories Rise in Line with Expectations

According to EIA estimates, natural gas in storage was 3,170 Bcf as of Friday, September 24, 2021. This represents a net increase of 88 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 87 Bcf build. Stocks were 575 Bcf less than last year at this time and 213 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,383 Bcf. At 3,170 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.