Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Slide as Hanna Fades

Natural gas prices eased on Monday as Tropical Storm Hanna faded as it hit the Texas coast. There is one disturbance in the Atlantic which has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical stork according to NOAA. Tropical storm Gonzalo has also faded. The weather is expected to be warmer than normal for the next 2-weeks which should help buoy demand.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices declined on Monday dropping nearly 4% after running into resistance near the 50-day moving average at 1.81 on Friday. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1.73. Medium-term momentum has recently turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line. The MACD histogram is printing in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices. Short term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal.

Demand Rises in Latest Week

Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 1.0% compared with the previous report week, according to data from the EIA. Natural gas consumed for power generation climbed by 0.8% week over week. Industrial sector consumption remained unchanged, averaging 20.4 Bcf per day. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption increased by 4.1%, but remains relatively low. Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 0.7%.