Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Slide on Smaller than Expected Inventory Draw

Natural gas prices whipsawed again on Thursday and tumbled 2.3%, following a smaller than expected draw in natural gas inventories. The weather is expected to be colder than normal in the US’s western portion over the next 2-weeks but warmer than normal in the mid-west and the east coast. The calendar is now moving into the end of the withdrawal season, and prices will likely remain rangebound unless there is another disruption or a cold spell.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices whipsawed but moved lower and appear to be caught in a wide range. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.83. support is seen near the 50-day moving average at 2.72. Short-term momentum is negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 16, below the oversold trigger level of 20 which foreshadows a correction. Medium-term momentum remains negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

Inventories Decline Less than Expected

According to the EIA, natural gas in storage was 1,845 Bcf as of Friday, February 26, 2021. This represents a net decrease of 98 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 176 Bcf draw according to survey provider Estimize. Stocks were 277 Bcf less than last year at this time and 178 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,023 Bcf. At 1,845 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.