Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Slip Despite Cold Temperature Forecast

Natural gas prices moved lower on Wednesday ahead of Thursday’s inventory report from the Department of Energy. Expectations are for a 172 Bcf draw in stockpiles, according to survey provider Estimize.  The weather in the US is expected to be colder than normal for the next two weeks, which should increase heating demand. LNG exports declined week over week according to the Energy Information Administration

Technical analysis

Natural gas prices moved lower on Wednesday, retracing back below support. Short-term resistance is now seen at the former breakout level which is a downward sloping trend line that comes in near 2.81. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.66. The 10-day moving average has crossed above the 50-day moving average which means a short-term up trend is now in place. Medium-term momentum remains positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

US LNG Export Decline

US LNG exports decrease week over week. Eighteen liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessels five from Sabine Pass, four each from Cameron, Corpus Christi, and Freeport, and one from Cove Point, with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 65 Bcf departed the United States between January 21 and January 27, 2021, according to shipping data from the EIA.