Natural Gas Reverses Generating a Fake Out not a Break Out

Natural gas prices whipsawed attempting to pressure higher but failing and reversing and closing near the session lows. Prices had attempted to break out above trend line resistance which held firm at 2.79. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.705. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal, in oversold territory which reflects accelerating negative momentum.

The EIA revealed that working gas storage continues to post net withdrawals during first week of the refill season. Net withdrawals from storage totaled 19 Bcf for the week ending April 6, compared with the five-year average net injection of 9 Bcf and last year’s net injections of 9 Bcf during the same week. The natural gas storage refill season begins on April 1, and this week’s report marks the fourth time since 2010 that net withdrawals from storage on a national level were reported during the month. Working gas stocks totaled 1,335 Bcf, which is 375 Bcf lower than the five-year average and 725 Bcf lower than last year at this time.

Withdrawals from storage are driven by colder-than-normal temperatures in the Midwest and East regions. Working gas stocks posted larger-than-normal net withdrawals during the storage week. Net withdrawals totaled 20 Bcf and 12 Bcf in the Midwest and East regions, respectively, compared with the five-year average withdrawal of 4 Bcf in both of these regions.

The EIA reported that temperatures are colder than normal across the Lower 48 states during the storage week. Temperatures in the Lower 48 states averaged 47°F, 2°F lower than the normal and 6°F lower than last year at this time. Temperatures in the heavy natural gas-consuming areas of the Midwest and Middle Atlantic posted significantly colder-than-normal temperatures. The average temperature for the Lower 48 states was somewhat higher than during the prior storage week.