Natural gas gains ground as traders focus on the developments in the Middle East.
Production in Qatar remains shut after a recent drone attack, while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Traders expect that demand for U.S. LNG will increase due to major problems in European natural gas markets.
Currently, natural gas is trying to settle above the nearest resistance level, which is located in the $3.25 – $3.30 range. A move above the $3.30 level will push natural gas towards the next resistance at $3.50 – $3.55. RSI remains in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.
WTI oil gained huge upside momentum as traders reacted to Donald Trump’s comments on Iran. U.S. President said that Iran should surrender without any conditions. He added that he would not negotiate a deal.
Kuwait has already been forced to cut output as the country did not have enough storage for oil. The Strait of Hormuz remains shut, so other countries in the region may soon face the same problem. Energy importers rush to find oil elsewhere, pushing prices to new highs.
According to recent reports, there are only nine empty supertankers in the Gulf, so there’s not enough storage for a week of production.
Saudi Arabia is trying to increase loadings from the Red Sea, while UAE is moving crude oil to the port of Fujairah. However, these efforts would not be sufficient to ensure stable exports in case the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Iran’s strategy is clear: the country wants to keep the world’s key oil route closed as long as the conflict continues. Iran bets that global community will try to put pressure on the U.S. to stop the operation as high oil prices hurt the global economy.
Meanwhile, U.S. and Israel continue the operation against Iran with full force. U.S. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has recently noted that the Trump administration had many tools to deal with rising oil prices. He said that the problem would be solved relatively quickly. However, the market does not believe that the Middle East oil export problem could be solved in the near term.
Currently, WTI oil is trying to settle above the resistance at $90.00 – $90.50. In case this attempt is successful, WTI oil will move towards the next resistance level, which is located in the $94.50 – $95.00 range. Traders should note that technicals may take a back seat in the upcoming trading sessions as the market is focused on fundamentals.
Brent oil has easily climbed above the psychologically important $90.00 level and is trying to settle above the resistance at $91.50 – $92.00.
If this attempt is successful, Brent oil will move towards the next resistance at $97.00 – $97.50.
It remains to be seen whether traders will be willing to take profits off the table after the strong rally as oil importers are currently searching for any oil they could buy amid shortage.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.