Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil dipped 9 points to 41.62 while Brent Oil matched the declines to trade at 44.77. Crude oil prices slumped due to
Crude Oil dipped 9 points to 41.62 while Brent Oil matched the declines to trade at 44.77. Crude oil prices slumped due to global supply surplus even as US rig counts have continued to fall, for an eleventh week out of 12. The markets are also focusing on the developing geopolitical tensions in the oil-producing Middle East.
King Abdullah of Jordan will hold talks in Moscow on Tuesday with Russian President Vladimir Putin on how to tackle “terror groups” led by the Islamic State in Syria, an official source said.
Brent crude was last down 22 cents at $44.64 per barrel and on track for a 10 percent fall this month. While most analysts do not expect OPEC to cut output, they are mindful that Saudi Arabia could be inching towards the idea of working on price support measures with other oil producers.
Oil companies have been hoping estimates of higher demand heading into 2016 would be a game changer over the next year; resulting in higher oil prices without the need for production to be cut back.
The idea is the price of oil in the range of $40 to $50 isn’t sustainable, so there will have to be a change in production if the expected demand doesn’t come about. I don’t believe it’s going to. Even if there is some increase, the amount of supply continues to grow, easily offsetting whatever boost in demand occurs.
Generally, there was a growing consensus that demand was going to jump, driven by the low price of oil. That hasn’t stopped high levels of production bringing more supply to the market, which makes the assumption of higher demand a moot point going forward.
Adding to the dismal narrative is the high probability there will be a hike in the interest rate by the Federal Reserve, which will push oil down further.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
WEEKLY
This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.
Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
NZD |
ANZ Business Confidence (Nov) |
14.6 |
15.0 |
10.5 |
|
||
AUD |
Company Gross Operating Profits |
1.3% |
1.0% |
-0.5% |
|||
AUD |
Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Oct) |
0.7% |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
||
JPY |
BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks |
|
|
|
|
||
EUR |
German Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) |
-0.4% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
|
||
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) (Nov) |
|
0.1% |
0.0% |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Tuesday, December 1, 2015
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
AUD |
AIG Manufacturing Index (Nov) |
|
|
50.2 |
|
||
JPY |
Capital Spending (YoY) (Q3) |
|
|
5.6% |
|
||
AUD |
Building Approvals (MoM) (Oct) |
|
-2.3% |
2.2% |
|
||
AUD |
Current Account (Q3) |
|
-16.5B |
-19.0B |
|
||
CNY |
Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
|
49.8 |
49.8 |
|
||
CNY |
Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
|
|
53.1 |
|
||
CNY |
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
|
48.3 |
48.3 |
|
||
AUD |
Interest Rate Decision (Dec) |
|
2.00% |
2.00% |
|
||
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
|
52.6 |
52.6 |
|
||
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
|
-5K |
-5K |
|
||
EUR |
German Unemployment Rate (Nov) |
|
6.4% |
6.4% |
|
||
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
|
52.8 |
52.8 |
|
||
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
|
54.0 |
55.5 |
|
||
EUR |
Unemployment Rate (Oct) |
|
10.8% |
10.8% |
|
||
USD |
Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
|
|
52.6 |
|
||
USD |
ISM Manufacturing Employment |
|
48.5 |
47.6 |
|
||
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
|
50.4 |
50.1 |
|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Dec 02 11:30 UK Gbp 3.75bn 1.5% Jan 2021 Gilt
Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec
Dec 03 10:30 Spain 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono
Dec 03 10:50 France
Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.7bn 1%
Dec 07 13:00 Norway Details bond auction on 09 Dec
Dec 07 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 11 Dec
Dec 08 11:30 UK 3.5% 2045 Gilt auction
Dec 08 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction
Dec 09 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Dec 09 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction
Dec 09 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn Dec 2017 Schatz
Dec 09 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction
Dec 10 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction
Dec 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus