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Oil Fundamental Analysis – December 1, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Nov 30, 2015, 11:58 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil dipped 9 points to 41.62 while Brent Oil matched the declines to trade at 44.77. Crude oil prices slumped due to

Oil Fundamental Analysis – December 1, 2015 – Forecast

Oil Fundamental Analysis – December 1, 2015 - Forecast
Oil Fundamental Analysis – December 1, 2015 - Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil dipped 9 points to 41.62 while Brent Oil matched the declines to trade at 44.77. Crude oil prices slumped due to global supply surplus even as US rig counts have continued to fall, for an eleventh week out of 12. The markets are also focusing on the developing geopolitical tensions in the oil-producing Middle East.

King Abdullah of Jordan will hold talks in Moscow on Tuesday with Russian President Vladimir Putin on how to tackle “terror groups” led by the Islamic State in Syria, an official source said.

Brent crude was last down 22 cents at $44.64 per barrel and on track for a 10 percent fall this month. While most analysts do not expect OPEC to cut output, they are mindful that Saudi Arabia could be inching towards the idea of working on price support measures with other oil producers.

Oil companies have been hoping estimates of higher demand heading into 2016 would be a game changer over the next year; resulting in higher oil prices without the need for production to be cut back.

The idea is the price of oil in the range of $40 to $50 isn’t sustainable, so there will have to be a change in production if the expected demand doesn’t come about. I don’t believe it’s going to. Even if there is some increase, the amount of supply continues to grow, easily offsetting whatever boost in demand occurs.

Generally, there was a growing consensus that demand was going to jump, driven by the low price of oil. That hasn’t stopped high levels of production bringing more supply to the market, which makes the assumption of higher demand a moot point going forward.

Adding to the dismal narrative is the high probability there will be a hike in the interest rate by the Federal Reserve, which will push oil down further.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

ANZ Business Confidence (Nov)

14.6

15.0

10.5

 

 

  AUD

 

Company Gross Operating Profits

1.3%

1.0%

-0.5%

   

  AUD

 

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Oct)

0.7%

0.6%

0.8%

 

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)

-0.4%

0.4%

0.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

German CPI (MoM) (Nov)  

 

0.1%

0.0%

   

 

crude oil

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

AIG Manufacturing Index (Nov)

 

 

50.2

 

 

  JPY

 

Capital Spending (YoY) (Q3)

 

 

5.6%

 

 

  AUD

 

Building Approvals (MoM) (Oct)

 

-2.3%

2.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

Current Account (Q3)

 

-16.5B

-19.0B

 

 

  CNY

 

Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

49.8

49.8

 

 

  CNY

 

Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

 

53.1

 

 

  CNY

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

48.3

48.3

 

 

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (Dec)

 

2.00%

2.00%

 

 

  EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

52.6

52.6

 

 

  EUR

 

German Unemployment Change

 

-5K

-5K

 

 

  EUR

 

German Unemployment Rate (Nov)

 

6.4%

6.4%

 

 

  EUR

 

Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

52.8

52.8

 

 

  GBP

 

Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

54.0

55.5

 

 

  EUR

 

Unemployment Rate (Oct)

 

10.8%

10.8%

 

 

  USD

 

Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

 

52.6

 

 

  USD

 

ISM Manufacturing Employment

 

48.5

47.6

 

 

  USD

 

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

50.4

50.1

 

 

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Dec 02 11:30 UK Gbp 3.75bn 1.5% Jan 2021 Gilt

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono

Dec 03 10:50 France

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.7bn 1%

Dec 07 13:00 Norway Details bond auction on 09 Dec

Dec 07 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 11 Dec

Dec 08 11:30 UK 3.5% 2045 Gilt auction

Dec 08 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction

Dec 09 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 09 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Dec 09 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Dec 09 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

Dec 10 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Dec 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

 

 

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