Oil, Natural Gas, and US Dollar Technical Analysis Amid Supply Risks and Weak Demand

OPEC+ announced a small production increase for November, easing concerns about a potential oversupply. Traders had expected a larger hike, particularly from Saudi Arabia, but the final number matched October’s levels. This modest adjustment supported oil prices, as most producers are already operating close to their limits.

While Venezuelan exports are rising and Kurdish oil flows have resumed through Turkey, some Middle Eastern barrels remain unsold, adding to supply-side uncertainty.

At the same time, a drone attack on Russia’s Kirishi refinery has temporarily reduced refining capacity. Together, these mixed signals have kept oil prices volatile yet relatively supported near recent levels.

Although supply factors have offered some support, the overall outlook remains uncertain due to weak demand. Last week, U.S. inventories increased unexpectedly, while subdued refining activity pointed to softer consumption trends.

The upcoming refinery maintenance season is likely to limit near-term upside, as temporary shutdowns reduce crude processing and dampen demand. Without a clear rebound in global consumption, especially from the U.S., oil prices may remain rangebound and struggle to sustain a strong move higher.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

WTI Oil Daily Chart – Negative Price Action

The daily chart for WTI crude oil (CL) shows a breakdown below the $64 area, completing the ascending channel pattern and reaching the $60 level. After hitting $60, the price rebounded toward resistance at $62. Despite this bounce, WTI Crude Oil maintains a bearish outlook.

A decisive break below $60 is needed to confirm further downside pressure. As long as the price stays below the 200-day SMA at $67, the next likely move for WTI remains to the downside.

The importance of the $60 region is also evident on the weekly chart below, which shows that $60 remains the long-term support for WTI crude oil. This is highlighted by the long-term descending trendline visible in the chart.

WTI Oil 4-Hour Chart – Negative Price Action

The 4-hour chart for WTI Crude Oil also shows a negative trend, with prices consolidating between the $60 and $65.50 area. The recent consolidation between $60 and $62 reflects price uncertainty as the market awaits its next move.

The RSI is holding below the mid-level, indicating persistent bearish pressure. However, a rebound in WTI Crude Oil may develop toward the $65 region before initiating the next downward move.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Bullish Construction

The daily chart for natural gas (NG) shows that prices have rebounded after hitting the strong support zone between $2.50 and $2.60. This key support region is defined by the neckline of the cup-and-handle pattern. Currently, the price is consolidating near the 200-day SMA and requires a breakout to confirm the next move higher.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Bullish Construction

The 4-hour chart for natural gas shows that prices are consolidating below the $3.50 to $3.60 region. The rebound from the long-term support near $2.60 has pushed prices up to this resistance zone. A decisive break above the $3.60 level is required to sustain upward momentum and potentially drive natural gas prices toward the $5.00 area.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily Chart – Consolidation

The daily chart for the U.S. Dollar Index shows that the index is consolidating between the 96.50 and 100.50 levels. The price is currently rebounding above the 50-day SMA. A breakout above 98.60 could drive the index toward the 100.50 resistance.

Moreover, a break above 100.50 would neutralize the prevailing negative trend and signal further upside. However, as long as the index remains below 100.50, the next move is likely to be lower.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation

The 4-hour chart for the U.S. Dollar Index shows that the index has been consolidating between 96.50 and 98.60. However, the rebound from 96.50 following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts has created a short-term bullish price action. Despite this, the overall trend remains bearish, and the index must break above 100.50 to initiate a sustained upside move.