Oil News: Bearish Outlook as OPEC+ Eyes Supply Hike and Inventories Climb

OPEC+ Output Talks and U.S. Inventory Surge Weigh on Oil Prices

Light crude oil futures extended their decline on Thursday, pressured by renewed supply concerns and weaker-than-expected U.S. inventory data. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is currently trading below key technical levels, threatening a deeper retracement with momentum pointing toward $59.51.

At 13:21 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $60.71, down $0.86 or -1.40%.

OPEC+ Eyes July Output Hike—Can the Market Absorb More Barrels?

Oil prices slid over 1% Thursday following a Bloomberg report that OPEC+ is weighing a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July. This potential policy shift would come on top of earlier additions already planned for May and June. While no official deal has been finalized, the size and timing of the increase are sparking fears that supply growth could outpace demand.

Traders are recalibrating positions based on a shift in tone from Saudi Arabia and its allies, who appear to be prioritizing market share over price defense. Analysts, including RBC Capital’s Helima Croft, see the proposed 411,000 bpd increase—mostly from Saudi Arabia—as the likely outcome from the June 1 meeting.

U.S. Crude Inventories Rise Unexpectedly, Undermining Demand Signals

Adding to the bearish tone, the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed an unexpected 1.3 million barrel build in U.S. crude stocks last week, bringing inventories to 443.2 million barrels. This contrasts sharply with expectations for a 1.3 million barrel draw.

Higher imports and a dip in gasoline and distillate demand helped push inventories higher. According to LSEG’s Emril Jamil, the surprise build—especially amid lower domestic demand—could push more U.S. crude toward export markets, particularly in Europe and Asia.

Technical Pressure Mounts Below Key Resistance Levels

From a technical standpoint, WTI faces headwinds at the $62.59 pivot and the 50-day moving average of $62.90. Failure to reclaim those levels keeps near-term pressure intact. A break below $59.51 would likely open the door to deeper downside levels unless sentiment shifts quickly.

Bearish Outlook as OPEC+ and Inventory Data Align Against Bulls

With bearish catalysts aligning—OPEC+ signaling more barrels and U.S. inventory builds—near-term price pressure is likely to persist. Unless traders see firm signs of demand recovery or a rollback in OPEC+ supply discussions, the outlook for oil prices remains bearish heading into next week.

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