Oil News: Bullish Oil Outlook Builds on Supply Risks and Trump Tariff Reversal

Oil Prices Forecast: Crude Rally Tests Key Technical and Geopolitical Resistance

Light crude oil futures surged Thursday, positioning prices for a potential breakout if momentum sustains above critical resistance levels. The near-term technical focus is on the 50-day moving average at $62.60 and a nearby pivot at $62.74.

A strong move above these levels on high volume could open the door to testing recent highs at $64.19 and $64.40, with the 200-day moving average looming at $66.73. Traders are watching closely for confirmation through volume, with a weak push risking a failed breakout and subsequent selloff.

At 10:16 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $62.74, up $0.90 or +1.46%.

Trump Tariff Ruling Eases Demand Concerns—Temporarily

The rally gained added fuel after a U.S. trade court blocked most of former President Donald Trump’s tariffs, lifting risk appetite across equity and commodity markets. The court found Trump overreached by imposing sweeping duties, which had dampened global trade and oil demand.

Analysts warn the decision could face appeal, but for now, the move has removed a short-term demand headwind. SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop said the ruling makes the “machine of the global economy move better and faster,” potentially supporting oil demand.

OPEC+ Eyes July Output Boost as Supply Risks Mount

Attention now shifts to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where the group may decide to accelerate supply hikes. ING analysts anticipate a fresh increase of 411,000 barrels per day in July, with similar output growth expected through the third quarter.

However, additional supply-side pressure is building elsewhere. Chevron halted production in Venezuela after its U.S. license was revoked, curtailing 290,000 barrels per day—over a third of Venezuela’s total exports. Meanwhile, wildfire-driven disruptions in Alberta have temporarily shut in production, adding more upside risk to the supply picture.

Russian Crude Sanctions in Focus as U.S. Considers New Measures

Traders are also monitoring the potential for new U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil, which could further tighten global supply. The geopolitical environment remains fragile, with any escalation risking a spike in prices. At the same time, the market awaits fresh U.S. inventory data.

Preliminary figures from the American Petroleum Institute suggest crude and gasoline stocks declined last week, while distillates saw a modest rise. The EIA is expected to confirm a 300,000 barrel build in crude inventories later Thursday.

Crude Oil Market Outlook: Bullish Bias Strengthens on Supply Risks and Technical Momentum

With solid technical momentum, easing trade tensions, and mounting supply risks—from Venezuela to potential Russian sanctions and Canadian wildfires—the crude oil market is tilting bullish.

Provided volume supports a sustained breakout above the $62.74 level, a move toward the $64.40-$66.73 range appears likely. Further confirmation from OPEC+ and U.S. inventory data could extend the rally.

Traders should prepare for increased volatility, but near-term sentiment favors higher oil prices.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.