Oil News: Crude Oil Futures Test 50-Day Average as Venezuela Disruptions Shape Oil Outlook

Oil Firms as Traders Eye the 50-Day Moving Average for Direction

Light crude futures inched higher in Thursday’s holiday-shortened session, but the market didn’t have much follow-through. Prices pushed into the 50% retracement at $58.62 and briefly tested the 50-day moving average at $58.73 before buyers lost interest and things went flat. Traders were watching that moving average closely — it’s the kind of level that can flip the tone quickly if buyers actually commit.

At 14:22 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $58.56, up $0.18 or +0.31%.

U.S. Growth and Geopolitical Strains Keep a Bid Under Crude

The market still has a little support from Wednesday’s move, when crude climbed for a sixth straight session. Strong U.S. GDP and fresh geopolitical strain kept sellers on the sidelines, even as everyone knows this year will likely close with crude chalking up its steepest annual drop since 2020. The bounce since December 16 — roughly 6% — has been driven by position-squaring in thin holiday markets and a sense that last week’s breakdown didn’t stick.

U.S. growth helped stabilize sentiment after data confirmed the fastest quarterly expansion in two years. Traders like seeing consumer spending hold up and exports jump — it keeps demand expectations from slipping too far. But the bigger support still comes from supply risks tied to Venezuela and Russia, with tensions rising around U.S. efforts to squeeze Venezuelan flows.

Venezuela’s Export Snarl Tightens the Supply Picture

The Venezuelan situation has been a real driver. Loaded vessels are sitting idle after the U.S. seized a key tanker and signaled more action to come. A “blockade” on sanctioned vessels moving in or out of the country raises the risk of longer-lasting disruptions. Russia and Ukraine targeting each other’s energy infrastructure only adds to the unease, giving crude enough support to keep sellers cautious.

Inventory Build Tempers the Bid — For Now

The near-term headwind is U.S. stock builds. API data showed crude inventories rising by 2.39 million barrels last week, with gasoline and distillates also higher. Traders won’t overreact until the official EIA data lands on Monday, but the numbers did slow the upside momentum. Buyers stepped back once futures hit those technical barriers, suggesting the market isn’t ready to punch higher without a clear catalyst.

Oil Prices Forecast: Can Crude Break Through the 50-Day Moving Average?

Bottom line: the 50-day moving average is the real pivot here. A firm break above it could open the door to an acceleration toward the 61.8% retracement at $59.51. If sellers regain control, the minor 50% level at $57.60 is the first downside magnet. For now, crude still leans slightly constructive thanks to geopolitics and solid U.S. data — but traders want proof before chasing this higher.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.