Oil News: Crude Oil Slips as OPEC+ Mulls Early Production Hike – Bearish Outlook

Oil Prices Slip as OPEC+ Considers Accelerated Output Hike

Oil prices dropped nearly 2% on Wednesday as traders braced for a possible decision from OPEC+ this weekend to increase production targets starting in October. The potential move, currently under discussion by eight key members, could unwind a second layer of output cuts far earlier than planned—raising concerns of a looser supply environment heading into the final stretch of Q3.

OPEC+ Debates Early End to Output Curbs as Market Share Pressure Builds

Sources familiar with the talks say the proposed hike would add back roughly 1.65 million barrels per day, or 1.6% of global demand, as OPEC+ eyes regaining lost market share. This follows a previously agreed 2.2 million bpd quota increase from April to September, along with a 300,000 bpd uplift for the UAE.

However, actual production has lagged pledges. Some members are offsetting past overproduction, while others remain constrained by limited capacity. An official announcement this Sunday could clarify whether these production targets will be fully met—or merely symbolic.

Technical Levels Show Sellers Defending Key Resistance Zone

Wednesday’s 1.77% decline pushed NYMEX WTI futures back to $64.43, just under the $65.10 resistance level marked by the August high. The chart shows prices briefly testing above both the 50-day ($64.40) and 200-day ($63.29) moving averages before retreating—highlighting near-term seller strength.

Traders will now be watching the $65.41–$66.18 resistance band, which represents a major hurdle for any sustained bullish momentum. A close above $66.18 opens up room toward the $68.70 zone, while downside support sits near the 200-day SMA and recent swing low at $61.12.

Geopolitical Tensions Offer Limited Upside, While Demand Remains Soft

A temporary boost from U.S. sanctions on a network smuggling Iranian oil was quickly overshadowed by weak demand signals. U.S. manufacturing shrank for a sixth month, reflecting declining industrial consumption. Meanwhile, early inventory estimates suggest a 3.4 million barrel draw last week, but broader macro concerns are capping bullish enthusiasm.

Oil Prices Forecast: Bearish Tilt Holds Unless Resistance Breaks

The market is leaning bearish heading into the OPEC+ meeting. Unless the group delays or waters down the proposed October hike, supply pressures are likely to outweigh near-term inventory draws. Price action remains technically capped below key resistance, and without a breakout above $66.18, sellers maintain the upper hand.

Traders should stay alert to headline risk from the weekend talks and watch the 200-day moving average at $63.29 as the next line of defense if bearish sentiment deepens.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.