Oil News: Oil Prices Base Near Support, But Face Triple Resistance Block Ahead

Crude Oil Prices Edge Higher, but Resistance Looms as Supply and Growth Outlooks Diverge

Light crude oil futures posted modest gains Tuesday, attempting to reverse a four-day losing streak that dragged prices down around 3%. WTI front-month contracts are probing immediate resistance at the 200-day moving average of $63.00, followed by the 50-day MA at $63.67 and a critical 50% retracement level at $64.21. Only a decisive break above this confluence would signal a momentum shift to the upside.

At 10:26 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $62.66, up $0.38 or +0.61%.

Support is layered below at $61.34 and $61.10, with stronger protection near the August 13 low of $60.77. The current range reflects a market caught between bearish macro headwinds and still-constructive positioning data.

OPEC Supply Adds Pressure as Kurdish Pipeline Nears Restart

A tentative deal between Iraq’s federal and Kurdish governments to resume oil exports via Turkey could bring an additional 230,000 bpd back online. This agreement, pending cabinet approval, reintroduces barrels sidelined since March 2023, adding pressure to a market already sensitive to rising supply.

The International Energy Agency projects that global oil supply will increase through 2025 and into 2026, driven by both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers. While OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report sticks with a bullish demand estimate of 1.3 million bpd in 2025, traders are increasingly aware that rising output could blunt any tightening narrative unless demand surprises to the upside.

OECD Lifts Global Growth Outlook—Supportive, but With Caveats

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development added a bullish wrinkle to the demand picture, raising its global GDP forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, up from 2.9% in June. U.S. growth was also revised higher to 1.8% from 1.6%, reflecting better-than-expected industrial production, AI-led investment, and fiscal support in China.

This upward revision could offer crude markets some underlying support, as stronger economic activity tends to boost transport and industrial fuel demand. However, the OECD flagged multiple risks, including escalating U.S. tariffs—now at their highest effective rate since 1933—and rising fiscal and financial market uncertainties.

While headline inflation across G20 nations is expected to ease slightly, the threat of renewed pricing pressures could still prompt tighter central bank policies, tempering demand growth over time.

Positioning Shows Commercials Accumulating, Specs Cautiously Long

Commitment of Traders data shows a meaningful reduction in speculative short exposure, with a drop of 12,845 contracts last week—placing the shift in the 74th percentile of all historical readings. Commercial traders have added long exposure, now at 96.7% of their all-time concentration. While not a contrarian buy signal on its own, the data supports a potential bottoming process, particularly if macro conditions stabilize.

Oil Prices Forecast: Rangebound with Downside Risk Unless Demand Rebounds

Crude prices are attempting to base, supported by resilient growth expectations and improved trader positioning. But strong resistance near $64.21 and the return of sidelined supply limit near-term upside. If OECD upgrades are validated by hard data and inventories continue to draw, a tighter balance may emerge.

Outlook: Cautiously bearish. Prices remain capped by resistance and fresh supply, but improved growth projections and commercial length offer a potential floor near $60.77.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.