Oil News: WTI Slips as API Inventory Looms; 50-day MA Caps Crude Oil Futures

WTI Slips as Traders Eye Inventories and Test Key Resistance

Light crude oil futures are trading lower midweek, with traders largely in wait-and-see mode ahead of fresh inventory data. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is due to release its report late Wednesday, while official numbers from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will hit Thursday morning — delayed a day due to the Veterans Day holiday. Consensus points to a 1.0 million barrel build.

At 13:14 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $60.22, down $0.82 or -1.34%.

That expected uptick in supply is capping upside momentum for now. Tuesday’s price action saw a brief pop above the 50-day moving average at $60.95, but it didn’t stick — a textbook case of buy stops getting triggered rather than real conviction from the long side. Still, the move hints that resistance may be softening, even if bulls have more work to do.

WTI Faces Stubborn Technical Barriers

Technically, the 50-day moving average remains a key ceiling. A clean breakout would be a bullish development, but traders won’t really take notice until WTI pushes above the 200-day moving average at $61.60. That level is more significant from a trend-following perspective, and a sustained move above it could open the door to a quick run at the October 24 high at $62.59, followed by the 50% long-term retracement at $63.74.

Support is stacked below, with minor backing at $60.05 and more meaningful footing in the $59.27 to $58.50 retracement zone — an area that includes a swing bottom at $58.83. For now, the market’s caught in a tug-of-war between headline-driven short-term trading and heavier supply concerns.

Supply Concerns Offset Hopes for Demand Rebound

Fundamentally, crude remains pressured by oversupply, even as hopes for stronger demand flicker. OPEC+ recently paused its production hikes through Q1, but prior increases continue to weigh. Meanwhile, any near-term lift from a U.S. government reopening — expected to pass the House later today — could boost consumer sentiment and oil demand, though the effect may be muted in the face of current inventories.

Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen summed it up: both WTI and Brent are “stuck,” with speculative flows driving most of the action. Traders seem to agree — the market’s been choppy, with no strong conviction either way.

IEA Walks Back Peak Oil Forecast, Sees Demand Growing into 2050

Adding to the demand-side debate, the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday made headlines by abandoning its earlier forecast that global oil demand would peak this decade. In its latest World Energy Outlook, the agency now projects that demand could continue rising through 2050 — a significant shift tied to its decision to model based on current policies rather than climate pledges. The move adds long-term support to the crude bull case, even if near-term fundamentals remain supply-heavy.

Outlook: Bearish Bias Below 50-Day MA, Stronger Signal Over 200-Day

Bottom line: Crude is still trading with a bearish bias while prices remain capped below the 50-day moving average at $60.95. Tuesday’s intraday push above that level failed to attract fresh buying, reinforcing its role as short-term resistance. A decisive breakout above it would be the first sign of strength, but bulls won’t have real control unless WTI can take out the 200-day moving average at $61.60. Until then, sellers remain in charge — especially with inventories leaning bearish and no real catalyst yet for sustained upside.

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