Oil Price Forecast: Brent Tests $70 While WTI Eyes $69 on Rising Iran Risks

Oil is trading at nexus of geopolitics and macro resilience. Brent Crude oil (BCO) is close to $69 and WTI crude oil (CL) is settling at around $65 after both benchmarks closed higher on Wednesday. Markets decided to concentrate not on growing U.S.-Iran tensions but on huge buildup in American crude stockpiles. That shift shows that traders are willing to price supply disruption risks even before concrete escalation occurs.

US officials confirmed that there had been no final agreement with Israel on Iran strategy. But negotiations with Tehran are ongoing. At the same time, Washington signaled to increase its military presence in the Middle East if talks fail. Indirect talks in Oman gave no time frame for resolution. This is the backdrop in which headlines can easily change prices. Therefore, a sustained break above $66 resistance in WTI would signal further upside whereas any de-escalation will open the way for a retracement to $60.

Beyond geopolitics, macro fundamentals continue to influence the overall oil price outlook. The chart below shows that the US economy added 130K payrolls in January 2026 which is much higher than December and well above forecasts of 70K.

On the other hand, unemployment rate was down to 4.3% as shown in the chart below.

The strong job growth in January shows stable fuel demand. That economic resiliency offsets concerns about last week’s buildup of more than expected 8.53 million barrels of U.S. crude inventories.

With stricter set of sanctions on Russian exports and supply risks, the overall trend is still positive. But changes in prices will remain sensitive to diplomatic headlines and inventory information.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Brent Daily Chart – Descending Broadening Wedge

The daily chart for Brent Crude oil shows the buildup of positive energy. However, the price is now challenging with strong resistance at $72, which is the pivotal resistance in Brent Crude oil. This pivotal resistance is defined by the resistance line of descending broadening wedge pattern. Therefore, a break above $72 will indicate further upside toward $79.

Brent 4-Hour Chart – Ascending Channel

The 4-hour chart for Brent Crude oil shows an uptrend. This uptrend is observed through the ascending channel pattern, which points to $74. A break below $67.50 will indicate a breakdown in this uptrend and signal further downside toward $60. However, a break above $72 will indicate further upside toward short term target of $74.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

WTI Daily Chart – Consolidation

The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows strong consolidation between $66.50 and $61.50. A break of either of these levels will take the price in the next direction. A break above $66.50 will take the price to the descending trend line at $69. However, a break below $61.50 will take WTI crude oil toward $55 which is a strong long-term support number.

However, the consolidation above the 200-day SMA indicates that the price will likely move toward the $69 area before correcting lower.

WTI 4-Hour Chart – Ascending Channel

The 4-hour chart for WTI crude oil shows the formation of a short-term uptrend which is defined by the ascending channel pattern. The target of this ascending channel pattern remains $69. However, a break below $61.50 will indicate a price breakdown and signal a drop toward $55.

Final Words

In conclusion, oil is supported by geopolitical uncertainty and resilient macro data. The strong job growth in US and stable unemployment rate lend support to stable fuel demand, despite rising crude inventories. At the same time, continuing negotiations with Iran and increasingly strict sanctions for Russian exports keep risks to supply in focus.

From technical perspective, Brent has to clear $72 to gain momentum toward $79 and WTI needs to see a sustained move above $66.50 to confirm a move toward $69. Until these levels break, prices may continue to move within defined ranges with the headlines and inventory data being the source of short term volatility.

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